So, this seems to be the hottest discussion going around right now. I am not a political pundit, not even a keen political observer actually. But I am trying to decipher a path of action based on logic. & truth be told, I am confused.
Congress has realized that Kejriwal might hurt them bady in National Elections. Given the anti-incumbency
That would not only mean altering the landscape of national politics. But would also translate into an uncompromising pressure group present on their heads in Loksabha.
Here is a man who brought the govt. to his knees with Anna when he was out of power. Imagine the pressure he can generate if he is in the Parliament!
So, They want to keep him out of the Parliament at any cost.
Hence Congress extended the olive branch to Kejriwal. They want to offer him a state to restrict his National march.
Because this is what would happen after Kejriwal makes the govt.
Within weeks you would start hearing cries about Kejriwal not being able to fulfill promises.
Power tariff reduction, Supplying water, Passing Lokayukta bill, Setting them up, reducing corruption! These are all things that would take time.
The unconditional support to Kejriwal won’t include the ‘luxury of time’ he needs to reform the system.
They would resort to the old rhetoric, “We told you, His promises were lofty, unreasonable! Bolne aur karne mein bahut fark hai!”
They will raise lot of question marks repeatedly. Enough to test the faith of the most ardent of supporters!
Given the enormity of the challenge. And expectation of quick results and the fact that He is the first time CM. Initial days are guaranteed to be most challenging for AK.
It would leave him with no time to devote energies to Loksabha. Even if he can make time, It would make it virtually impossible for him to campaign elsewhere.
If he goes, he would be targeted, “Dekho bhai, jo sapney dilli mein poore nahin kar paaye, woh poore desh ko dikha rahe hain! Pahle dilli to sudhar lo, phir yahan vote maangne aana!”
Congress hasn’t had a change of heart. Nor has it suddenly become respectful of the constructive role an opposition can play.
They want to push Kejriwal on the chair. They can’t afford to let Loksabha elections to be a referendum on Honesty and Integrity in many centers. That might be a Home run for Kejriwal. That’s why they are desperate to change the issue from Honesty to Governance. And luring Kejriwal into making the govt. would achieve just that.
And post Loksabha, Congress can always withdraw their ‘unconditional support’ citing differences with Kejriwal saying, “Oh we are also elected MLA’s and the guardians of Public interest. Kejriwal is acting like a dictator; we can’t support him like this!”
Or any other alibi for that matter!
The strategy is to let Kejriwal rule Delhi till Loksabha to blunt AAP’s impact in Loksabha and then destabilize Delhi govt. and seek a fresh mandate after weaking AAP sometime later.
Sonia Gandhi is astute. By offering Kejriwal unconditional support, She thought, I will make an offer that Kejriwal can’t refuse.
But Kejriwal was one step ahead: He made her an offer, which she will have to refuse!
He knows Sonia can’t go back on FDI in retail. Nor can she admit to Power audit. Because that would raise question marks as to why did Sheila not do it?
Accepting Kejriwal’s demands would be impossible for Sonia because It would put other state govt’s of Congress under pressure to implement the similar provisions like Lokayukta.
And finally it would be considered a tacid admission from Congress that Yes, Kejriwal was right! . Would be yet another perceptional disaster for the party.
In all, Sonia was playing poker with a weak hand.
Kejriwal called her bluff and said, “Show!”
If Politics is the game of chess, and Sonia is the erswhitle Grandmaster then Kejriwal is proving to be Magnus Carlsen!
Update : Aam Aadmi Party has accepted external support from Congress & Arvind Kejriwal will be sworn in as the Chief Minister of Delhi tomorrow.
Here is what I think Aam Aadmi Party is about, it is about an ideology. One based on transparency & deep-rooted public involvement. It is not just about the jan lokpal bill although it maybe at the roots but they have or they will, if they haven't already, be an ideological group of people. An ideology that is not based on, anti-congress or anti-communal or anti-major-parties-front, but which is based on a very inherent need of people, an ideology that seeks to bring about transparency at every level, not just in the government but also the people. This is where I think, either I am reading between the lines or one aspect that is not being highlighted by the media or the Aam Aadmi Party. Here is where they differ from the other parties (or have, till now at least) & probably one of the big reasons why they have one. They do not have propaganda agendas (other than the usual marketing of course, which is acceptable) by they have an ideology that they stick with, before the elections & most importantly even after the elections.
& this is why the media is haunting them. Why the BJP is hunting them. We all know how the usual politics works in India. No matter what the manifesto of a party is (I am not sure if all the candidates of a party even what their manifesto is, in detail) they do not stick to it or are usually unable to implement it after the elections. It is almost like a short term memory loss of the winning party, only to remember it again at the time of the next election. Let me elaborate, Congress has been the socialist party of India & BJP has been the capitalist party of India. However neither of them have really stuck to their agendas of socialism or capitalism as the case maybe, over periods of time. Congress has not been able to actually uplift the poor in the last 10 years of regime. The nectar of subsidies & befits does not reach the intended poor. Nor has BJP really been able to fast track India's business growth as they were intended to.
Here the Aam Aadmi Party differs, they have been born of an ideology. In fact, they do not have the years of experience of either congress or BJP, but just the (till now at least) unwavering belief in a new ideology, of transparency & deep-rooted public involvement. Which neither BJP, nor Congress seem to share. & that is the problem with AAP accepting support from either of them, the moment hey accept, they will be seen as compromising on the ideology that they started with. They will lose the faith that people have in them. Even people like me, who are not from Delhi, who have not even voted for them yet! Because they are changing the ball game. They are not about either socialism or capitalism, they are about an ideological change. Moreover, as far as I see, the primary reason for the pledging of unconditional support to Aam Aadmi Party by the congress is to keep BJP out of power in Delhi. It may have nothing to do with a common ideology shared with the Aam Aadmi Party. & no matter how much the congress proclaims it to be unconditional, these days even kisses come with strings attached, let alone important seats allowing a major disrupter to form a government. Ultimately there may be attempts of steering or lashing the Aap-led govt. by the congress.
& to the second part of the dilemma, in a hypothetical situation, if the Aam Aadmi Party decides to accept the said 'unconditional' support from congress & form a government, they will have a chance to being about a change. A change that the people of Delhi want to live (at least the ones who voted for them) a change I am sure a lot of people in the country want to be witness to. They will at least have a chance to deliver on the promises they have made, to prove that they truly are different from the rest.
I do not know how it will work out. I do not know recommend one way or the other. That is upto Arvind Kejriwal & the Aam Aadmi Party to decide.
But however it works out, it may change the destiny of Delhi or even the country over a period of time.
P.S. : I would like to reiterate that the post is a collection of my personal thoughts & opinions. I maybe right or wrong, may misapprehend. I may even have completely misunderstood the Aam Aadmi Party. I am not affiliated with any of the parties. Just writing my observations for future reference.
Thank you for reading.
Update : I agree with Nitin Gupta's point on this.
There is a reason why Congress desperately wants AAP to make govt. in Delhi.Congress has realized that Kejriwal might hurt them bady in National Elections. Given the anti-incumbency
That would not only mean altering the landscape of national politics. But would also translate into an uncompromising pressure group present on their heads in Loksabha.
Here is a man who brought the govt. to his knees with Anna when he was out of power. Imagine the pressure he can generate if he is in the Parliament!
So, They want to keep him out of the Parliament at any cost.
Hence Congress extended the olive branch to Kejriwal. They want to offer him a state to restrict his National march.
Because this is what would happen after Kejriwal makes the govt.
Within weeks you would start hearing cries about Kejriwal not being able to fulfill promises.
Power tariff reduction, Supplying water, Passing Lokayukta bill, Setting them up, reducing corruption! These are all things that would take time.
The unconditional support to Kejriwal won’t include the ‘luxury of time’ he needs to reform the system.
They would resort to the old rhetoric, “We told you, His promises were lofty, unreasonable! Bolne aur karne mein bahut fark hai!”
They will raise lot of question marks repeatedly. Enough to test the faith of the most ardent of supporters!
Given the enormity of the challenge. And expectation of quick results and the fact that He is the first time CM. Initial days are guaranteed to be most challenging for AK.
It would leave him with no time to devote energies to Loksabha. Even if he can make time, It would make it virtually impossible for him to campaign elsewhere.
If he goes, he would be targeted, “Dekho bhai, jo sapney dilli mein poore nahin kar paaye, woh poore desh ko dikha rahe hain! Pahle dilli to sudhar lo, phir yahan vote maangne aana!”
Congress hasn’t had a change of heart. Nor has it suddenly become respectful of the constructive role an opposition can play.
They want to push Kejriwal on the chair. They can’t afford to let Loksabha elections to be a referendum on Honesty and Integrity in many centers. That might be a Home run for Kejriwal. That’s why they are desperate to change the issue from Honesty to Governance. And luring Kejriwal into making the govt. would achieve just that.
And post Loksabha, Congress can always withdraw their ‘unconditional support’ citing differences with Kejriwal saying, “Oh we are also elected MLA’s and the guardians of Public interest. Kejriwal is acting like a dictator; we can’t support him like this!”
Or any other alibi for that matter!
The strategy is to let Kejriwal rule Delhi till Loksabha to blunt AAP’s impact in Loksabha and then destabilize Delhi govt. and seek a fresh mandate after weaking AAP sometime later.
Sonia Gandhi is astute. By offering Kejriwal unconditional support, She thought, I will make an offer that Kejriwal can’t refuse.
But Kejriwal was one step ahead: He made her an offer, which she will have to refuse!
He knows Sonia can’t go back on FDI in retail. Nor can she admit to Power audit. Because that would raise question marks as to why did Sheila not do it?
Accepting Kejriwal’s demands would be impossible for Sonia because It would put other state govt’s of Congress under pressure to implement the similar provisions like Lokayukta.
And finally it would be considered a tacid admission from Congress that Yes, Kejriwal was right! . Would be yet another perceptional disaster for the party.
In all, Sonia was playing poker with a weak hand.
Kejriwal called her bluff and said, “Show!”
If Politics is the game of chess, and Sonia is the erswhitle Grandmaster then Kejriwal is proving to be Magnus Carlsen!
Update : Aam Aadmi Party has accepted external support from Congress & Arvind Kejriwal will be sworn in as the Chief Minister of Delhi tomorrow.
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